When I went to bed Tuesday night, I was feeling cautiously optimistic about the midterm elections, because some Democrats I approved of had already won their races. When I woke up Wednesday morning, I felt a lot better: not ecstatic exactly, but relieved. So many Democrats had won, so many ballot issues had been resolved in directions I approved, and predictions of a blue wave had been fulfilled beyond the expectations of those who'd made them. Numerous commentators admitted that they had been wary of too much optimism and had trimmed back their predictions accordingly. Better that outcome than the reverse, though.
I had to explain to various people I knew, especially my Latin friends, that these victories wouldn't change much right away, and that even after the newly elected politicians take office there are limits to how much they can change the situation for immigrants and asylum seekers. Many of Trump's actions have been made on executive authority, not Congress, and he's felt free to push back, even ignore the other branches much of the time. Also, while the violence, overreaching, and outright incompetence of his goons have alienated even many of those who voted for him, most voters still support his policies on immigration. People have told me that they agreed violent criminals should be deported (and I largely agree about that), but they were shocked and repulsed by the attacks on people with no criminal records, on those who were in the US legally, and especially the killing of US citizens. The lower profile of ICE activity under Markwayne Mullin has, I think, led many such people to think that the violence and incompetence have gone away, though they haven't.
Aside from that, there's the normal tendency of many people to forget that the new Senators and Representatives won't take office until January, leaving Trump and his minions to do a lot of damage in the meantime. There's also a lot of wild speculation, as if we haven't had enough of that throughout the campaign. Will Justice Alito retire, for example, giving Trump the opportunity to appoint a successor? What will happen to Pete Hegseth? Will JD Vance be the GOP presidential candidate in 2028? No one knows, but that doesn't keep them from filing copy about it. Even a progressive outlet ran a headline like "Marco Rubio Reportedly Considers Resigning as Secretary of State Ahead of Presidential Run" - what, they didn't write "potentially" there? What can we expect, Democracy Now? America desperately needs to know.
Even here in deep red Indiana, nepo-baby Beau Evans Bayh IV will be Secretary of State. Bayh ran some repugnantly militarist campaign ads, and I don't expect much from him. But it's an indication of how much damage Trump and MAGA have done to themselves and their party that he won.
The range of Democratic victories, not just in high-profile races such as the US Congress, but all over the place, is the most hopeful sign. It's ironic that late-night comedians like Jimmy Kimmel and Seth Meyers provide some of the best summaries of political news nowadays. This video from Meyers's show is a good example, worth watching all the way through. At one point he includes a clip of MS NOW pundits' surprise at all the new officials-elect they've never heard of. I don't blame them for that, it's not like a certain commentator who complained that she didn't know who Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was when she beat an entrenched incumbent in a congressional primary that had gotten a lot of national coverage. I do think the success of some progressive and left candidates so obscure that Big Tech and AIPAC didn't bother to go after them is good news and makes me cautiously optimistic for the years to come.
I also think it's possible that those winners will be able to resist pressure from right-wing Democrats to "moderate," to "move to the center." For one thing, they're less beholden to rich donors than most of their predecessors. For another, they know they're not alone, they can point to the nationwide rejection of mainstream-party corruption to give themselves backbone. It won't hurt that higher-profile candidates like Abdul El-Sayed won against the kind of bigotry and lies that worked in the past, not just from Republicans but from their own party; that too will encourage people who won without getting as much publicity.
So, for example, after the election a liberal Facebook friend posted some sensible cautions about premature exultation, which I agreed with. I commented to add something that had been on my mind: that even if Democrats had won a supermajority in the Senate, Senate Democrats aren't a monolithic group, and some will defect to vote with the Republicans, as they already have during both Trump terms. (At this point, it may be easier for some Republicans to break with Trump on some votes, so the situation isn't hopeless, but the point is that they'll have to balance Democrats who break with their party. At the moment, the GOP is in disarray, and Democrats should take advantage of that.) To my surprise, my friend replied that already many on "both sides" are "demonizing" Democrats, and they shouldn't do that. He didn't name any names, and I don't think my comment constituted demonizing, but hell, make the most of it. "Demonizing" had happened aplenty during the campaigns, with prominent Democrats making absurd accusations against DSA and other leftish candidates.
I asked for a bit more specificity. If he meant social media, overheated rhetoric is only to be expected and doesn't count; if the party leadership can't stand up to it, they should get out of the kitchen. The corporate media are already going after the leftish winners, hoping to get them to moderate their positions, but that's also business as usual and from what I see isn't working very well. I suspect he just didn't want people like Jeffries and Schumer to be made uncomfortable; if so, I disagree. That's not necessarily demonization, it's politics.
I remembered similar queasiness after Barack Obama was elected in 2008: his fan club protested that it was too soon to pressure him, we should hold his feet to the fire later, the election was over, there's supposed to be a honeymoon! As I said then, the big donors weren't going to wait, and anyone who remembers the terrible cabinet Obama appointed knows how it turned out. But then Obama ran as a corporate centrist and governed as one. He lost his Congressional majorities in the midterms as a result. The new blue wave has other priorities.
One commentator I read regularly on Twitter but don't always agree with wrote yesterday, "It’s pretty much impossible for the left to kick out Jeffries and Schumer now. The majorities in both houses of Congress are so massive that both Schumer and Jeffries can price in a bunch of vote refusals in a leadership election. There isn’t any leverage at all". The newbies may not be able to deny Schumer the leadership, Sami pointed out that 29 Senators would have to vote against him, but they won't be docile. I'm afraid he's right, but I'm also seeing enough hostility among the new people to think that Schumer and Jeffries will be in for a very bumpy ride.
One other point: some of the people who demonized Zohran Mamdani have calmed down a little, contrasting him with that awful Abdulrahman Muhammad El-Sayed. I don't think this is necessarily a conscious move, these people are too stupid for that, but it's funny to watch how mushy and malleable their hatred is.
